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Ok so I'll admit, I was not a fan of price action until recently. I was watching NNFX and I thought it was useless, part of the problem was that I was too lazy to bother trying it. But the more I browse this sub, the more interested I am. However, I am not completely cutting out my indicators and I'm gonna try both. But I have some questions:
Can you trade using price action on longer timeframes? (1h and up, I can't watch the charts for that long. Preferably, I would do full on swing trading using price action.)
How would you backtest a strategy using price action? I feel like this would be difficult for 2 reasons:
It is pretty subjective, so the rules aren't as strict (you might miss a trade opportunity while backtesting).
I can't backtest on tradingview using intraday charts, do you have a way to get around this? I tried drawing a black rectangle using the drawing tools but if you hover over it with your mouse, you can see price again.
I am going to read naked forex soon, would you recommend any other resources or should I stick with that for now and learn the basics first? (I'm not sure if I can even call it the "basics")
I also did the babypips course so I'm not completely clueless, but I skipped the parts about price patterns, harmonic patterns, and elliot wave (and fundamentals analysis but I'm not gonna bother with fundamentals because I only care about the news so I can avoid it, more than that is too much to keep track of IMO). I think the price patterns section might be important but the elliott wave and harmonic price patterns don't seem too important to me. Should I go back and learn these?
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Elliott Waves Series Part 2 - The Broad ConceptYou can find Part 1 here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/hieuyw/introduction_to_elliott_wave_theory_overview_of/ The primary value that the Wave Principle (from here on out, abbreviated to WP) confers on market analysts is the ability to provide context for market behaviour. Having context is incredibly important. To put it simply, the WP can be thought of as a compass. Whenever you feel lost looking at a chart (ANY chart, ANY market!), the WP will help get you back on track. Clearing Up Some Misconceptions About Elliott Wave Theory:
R.N. Elliott first discovered the WP in the 1930s using charts of the stock market. Many misinformed people believe that the WP works “best” on stocks and has been adapted for use in other markets. This is simply false. To be clear - Elliott discovered the WP. He did not invent the WP. The WP is based on human social nature and therefore it cannot be invented. It has always existed. What Elliott did was to start codifying rules and guidelines around how human social nature can be charted. Ultimately, Elliott’s objective was to be able to predict future human behaviour using the historical record. The expression of human social nature generates forms and patterns. As these forms and patterns repetitive, they have enormous predictive value.
Another major misconception around the WP is that it requires a lot of discretionary analysis, and more often than not, analysts shoehorn price action to fit the Elliott Wave model. In fact, the WP has very clear rules (these rules are inviolate under any circumstance) and guidelines (these guidelines should be adhered to almost 100% of the time). While there is a discretionary element involved in counting waves, properly trained wave analysts will ultimately arrive at a consensus because following the rules and guidelines narrows the possible wave counts very quickly. Very often Wave analysts will have 2 counts at hand in terms of where they think the market is presently situated. These counts are known as the preferred count and the alternative count. These counts are validated and invalidated using price levels derived from Elliott’s rules and guidelines. The most dissent I expect from two educated Wave analysts is that one analyst’s preferred count could be the other’s alternative count. This dissent quickly resolves itself as the price action develops and validates or invalidates one count or the other. This dissent usually occurs based on wave patterns of one higher degree. It is very rare that I have seen dissent on immediate market movements.
I didn’t know this was a major misconception, but someone brought this up in my first post, “I stated that Elliott Theory has better success when working in consolidations or extreme ranging markets.” This is completely false. The WP doesn’t work better or worse regardless of the market or the market conditions. That would be like saying that breathing air only works occasionally. The WP is NOT a strategy, it is the definitive model for charting human herding behaviour. Human behaviour does not show up only in periods of consolidation or range-bound markets. The markets are themselves driven by human behaviour, therefore the WP is always equally applicable. From a trading perspective, the WP is perfectly suited to capturing trends.
Well, what about news events? What about supply and demand theory? What about fundamentals?! Doesn’t any of this stuff matter?? In short, the answer is no. I have previously stated that I am a macro-based investor. This is certainly true. Much of the research I consume has to do with market fundamentals and global-macro analysis. This research helps me form a view that I can overlay with the WP. From a trading perspective, when it comes to actually pulling triggers and taking positions, my decisions are always guided first and foremost by the WP. Here is a fantastic quotation from Bob Prechter on this topic, “Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. The path of prices is not a product of news. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Its movement reflects a repetition of forms that is independent both of presumed causal events and of periodicity.”
The Bottom Line: Elliott Wave Theory is the best forecasting tool in existence. It has determined that the market’s progression unfolds in waves. Waves can be thought of as patterns that carry the market in a direction. There are a fixed number of the different kinds of patterns these waves can take. If you really boil this down to its essence, successfully applying the WP is as simple as identifying what kind of wave the market is currently in. I will end this now. The next part will deal with the overriding wave structure that the market is in, the different kinds of waves we will see, and why this wave structure exists in the first place.
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What is Forex? Think the stock market is huge? Think again. Learn about the LARGEST financial market in the world and how to trade in it.
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Fundamental Analysis I believe that for an Altcoin to be worth anything at all, it MUST first have technical aspects which are built with the future in mind. This is what solely determines if a cryptocurrency has the potential for the mid to long term. Even with 5 new altcoins launching everyday, you barely see 1 a month that can last even the mid-term. Then, after that I judge the coins based on 7 mediating factors; developers, community, branding/marketing, popularity/virality, novelty, infrastructure, and liquidity. For more about fundamental analysis and an explanation of these factors, read up on the first few sections in my previous post about picking and trading the next profitable altcoin. In this post, I will focus more on technical analysis and trading strategies instead. With so many coins out there, I like to use these above factors to weed out all the weaker shitcoins, and focus on altcoins which are substantially different from others, and more importantly, provide more value than other cryptocurrencies. After which, I use Technical Analysis to judge entry/exit positions for trading them. What else do you think makes a cryptocurrency fundamentally better than another, and more sustainable as a currency? Technical Analysis Many will probably agree when I say that the Altcoins market is akin to the "penny stocks" of cryptocurrencies. In this sense, most altcoin markets have much lower liquidity, but have much higher volatility. Since there are over 200 different cryptocurrency markets to date, I prefer to narrow down my list of altcoins to a small handful, and buy under-valued coins or trade the breakouts. You're going to find it really tough to be watching more than 5 altcoins at the same time, so I highly suggest keeping your list small, and adapt your watchlist to the fast changing markets. If you're new to technical analysis, here's a really good beginner's video on daytrading Penny Stocks, which also explains the basics of chart reading and an introduction to basic trading jargon that I'll be using throughout this post. The important concepts to take note of are resistances & supports, breakouts that coincide with high volume, and the general idea that "what goes up must come down". See video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYK2a77TjvU So after you get the basics sorted out, you should be ready to learn how to trade! I'm gonna break this intermediate technical analysis tutorial down into five main portions, and have compiled videos from other trading experts to give even beginners a better overall idea, and teach you all you need to know to devise your own Bitcoin & Altcoins trading strategy. 1. Top Down Analysis Firstly, lets look at the top down analysis method of reading charts. I always begin by trying to understand the market from a bird eye's view. Compare both charts from a long term period (e.g. 1d) against one from a shorter period (e.g. 15m) to get a holistic view of the market. This will help give you a general perspective of market trends, while peaks & troughs give you an idea of market resistances & supports. Use these basic resistance & support levels to judge entry/exit prices. In general, previous high and low points are new resistances or support depending on where the price is, and points where u can see big breakouts will be the new short term resistance/support. To get a better idea of what I mean, watch these videos by Jason Stapleton who explains top down analysis, resistances & supports, and structure. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9yCc7lD21Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJmMU-8yicM 2. Retracements The concept of retracements is, in my opinion, the most important one that any trading enthusiast must grasp in order to understand how the markets flow. In essence, a retracement is a temporary price movement against the established trend, and helps us understand that the markets move in wave patterns as highlighted by the Elliott Wave Theory. One way to look at it, as highlighted by this video below, is that most price-actions follow a pullback rule to fibonacci retracement levels (38%, 50%, 62%). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VSWqM0jfIQ The most important concept to take away from this is "what goes up must come down"; that price movements in one direction are always followed by retracements in the opposite direction. Of course, not all movements will follow the same pullbacks, and these levels should only be used as a guide. Here's another video: "Understanding Fibonacci retracement lines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzHjxPxGzMw". So the question then is, how will we know if this counter-movement price action is a retracement or a reversal? There is no way to say for certain...
3. Trading on Volume Another important concept you need to understand is that large price movements almost always coincide with high trading volume. With this in mind, this is where the liquidity of an altcoin also comes into play; the higher the trade volume of an altcoin, the lower the spreads, and the more likely you will be able to make some profitable trades from it. In general, the trade volume is a good indicator of, and is proportional to the popularity of the altcoin at the current time. Apart from the actual trading volume itself, another good indicator is the change in volume over time; if you realize that the trading volume of an altcoin has been steadily increasing over the last few days, it could be an indication that a big price movement is coming up. 4. Breakout Patterns The last concept I want to share is breakout patterns. Although most people are familiar with this concept, many do not know how to profit from them. This is one of the best tools to use for planning your entry positions, while there are various ways to do so, which are highlighted by these first two videos below: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YZ4ORz-UJ0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gN-6D8nH0E 5. Advanced Trading Strategies Now comes the fun part: how can we take all that we've learnt so far and put into good use for trading Bitcoin/Altcoins? Here are some pointers for you:
What we've learnt is more of a tool to make better entry and exit positions.
Keep in mind trading the bitcoin & altcoin markets as you watch the rest of these more advanced videos, and I hope you'll be able to gain some insights to build up your Bitcoins & Altcoins trading strategy.
Granted, forex & equities trading is much different from bitcoin or altcoin markets. However, the fundamentals are the same, and you should learn to draw lessons from the strategies talked about in the videos to supplement your bitcoin/altcoins trading strategy.
In the next videos, more advanced trading strategies and chart patterns will be shared. These strategies may seem very specific, but my goal is to give you better understanding of how these analysis tools are used, and to give you an idea of how different tools can be used to develop a single trading setup. The specifics are not important; what I hope to achieve is to open up your minds to new ideas, expand your trading knowledge, and ultimately encourage you to explore a diverse variety of trading strategies. Read up more on some of the main ideas discussed:
If you hated my previous TA, prepare to barf out a lung as I introduce you to Elliott Waves! :)
I thought I would share this here, I put this together last night to show the two possible scenarios that should be unfolding. Elliott Waves are fairly complicated to explain in a few paragraphs, but the short story is that the market moves in waves. You have the major trend which will unfold in moves made up of 5 waves, when those are complete, you get a 3 wave corrective move. These patterns work in all time frames from decades right down to the 1min. The longer the time frame, the "clearer" the waves are. The shorter the time frames, the more messy it can get. Last night I put this together: http://i.imgur.com/KG0OU.gif Im pretty bearish here so I am very comfortable counting 5 waves down. The question last night was whether we completed this 5 and are now doing an ABC corrective higher, or if we still have a leg down to go. The red numbered count showed the alternative scenario. This morning we got our answer and the white wave count looks like its the correct one. If this Elliott analysis works out, once we top at at wave C, this market will be due for a hard pull back to new lows below that 1215 from yesterday. Im looking for some topping action above 1260, I plan on loading SPY Dec puts above that range if I see resistance come in. IF this ABC correction does indeed stall out soon, be warned that the next leg down (according to Elliott Wave theory) will be ugly! (or beautiful if you are positioned correctly). If any of you are Elliott Wave experts, feel free to chime in. You may recognize this type of work from Todd Gordon on CNBC when he talks about his FOREX trades.
This is probably what you all have been waiting for – drumroll please – using the Elliott Wave Theory in forex trading! As an Elliott Wave trader, you will be spotting “wave-counts.” This means that you will be labeling the waves to see how they conform to the Elliott Wave pattern, to try and anticipate future price movement. In this section, we will look at some setups and apply our ... This week's price action confirmed the path. There's still a lot to come for U.S. stocks. Don't miss out on what's next. Join Financial Forecast Service Now. For over 40 years, our subscribers have trusted us to guide them through major economic and financial moves. Elliott Wave International is the world’s largest independent financial forecasting firm. Join Club EWI — Free. Unlock tons ... Elliott Wave view in AUDUSD suggests that the bounce from 25 September 2020 low has ended in wave ((B)) at $0.7243 high. The internals of that bounce unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag structure ... The most powerful wave within the Elliott Wave Sequence is Wave 3. This is considered the most attractive wave to trade. In order to identify this wave, we first need a Wave 1 in the direction of a new developing trend followed by a corrective wave, Wave 2, which covers 38.2%, 50.0%, or 61.8% of Wave 1. When we identify these two waves, then we can try to anticipate the beginning of Wave 3 ... Elliott Wave Strategy – Sell Setup . Elliott Wave Strategy – Buy Setup. The next chart below shows a buy set up example using Elliott Waves. Here we notice that after wave 3 starts to pull back the wave 4 ends near 38.2% retracement level of wave 3, which marks the entry point into the long set up. Trades are then exited at the peak of wave 3. The Elliott wave theory, ( or some call it the Elliott Wave Principle) Elliott wave analysis and how to trade Elliott Waves can be a mind boggling trading concept to understand especially for a new forex trader.. You see, I consider myself pretty good when it comes to price action forex technical analysis but when it comes to Elliott waves, even the “old dog” gets lost sometimes… Trade Ideas Elliott Wave Daily. Elliott Wave Daily. Latest . Latest; Featured posts ; Most popular; 7 days popular; By review score; Random; Elliott Wave Daily Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Stand aside ... The entry is triggered once the price action strikes and closes above the end of wave (D) labeled in black degree. To place the potential targets, we can measure the Fibonacci projection from the origin of wave ((3)) or ((A)) labeled in red, and the lowest level of the triangle. The first target will be at 61.8%, and the second target at 100%. Elliott wave theory buy strategy. Locate the impulse wave in an uptrend. Wait for the price bar to go bullish before entering. Enter the trade at wave 3 or 5. Place a stop-loss near the recent low form the entry point. Exit the trade on a high. Elliott wave theory sell strategy. Look for the corrective waves in a downtrend. With only three hard-and-fast rules, Jim boils the Wave Principle down to the need-to-know basics that will help any trader become an Elliott wave trader. Order this 90-minute video now and learn how Jim's simple approach to finding high-confidence trade setups using the Wave Principle, combined with the tips and tricks learned over 20 years of trading, can help maximize your forex trading.
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